Every journalist knows that ‘dog bites man’ is not a story
whereas ‘man bites dog’ makes a great one. I was reminded of this when reading
about the banking crisis in Spain, and that in turn sparked off a memory of a
half-remembered event.
I was going somewhere by ferry, I think it was to France
or just possibly Guernsey, but I really can’t remember for sure and it’s not
important. There was a delay of several hours, due to a mechanical fault with
the ferry, and we were all offered refreshment vouchers, for which there was
the inevitable queue. Some people were extremely disgruntled but most, like
myself, were quietly philosophical about it. A local TV news team turned up,
slightly pushy female interviewer, cameraman, sound recordist and a large van
with the station logo plastered all over it. She, Daphne
Blonde-Paddedshoulders, prowled up and down the various lines of people and for
some reason thrust her microphone under my nose.
“Terrible isn’t it? How are you coping?”
Coping with what? I gave my considered reply.
“Actually they’ve given us plenty of information, are
going to feed us and it’s not so much a problem as a minor inconvenience”.
Not what Ms Blonde-Paddedshoulders wanted to hear so she
moved on and tried again.
“It’s terrible. They’re not telling us anything. I’ve been
queuing for hours and my family are going to be frantically worried, I’m really
stressed out by this horrible experience etc etc etc.”
Bingo. An interview was duly recorded and for all I know
duly broadcast. Others who obviously wanted to appear on TV also obligingly
gave vent to their newly acquired spleen. Long on emotion but a bit short on
facts, never mind, man had obligingly bitten dog.
Fast forward to the run on the bank in Spain, conveniently
for those with a bad memory named Bankia, that seemingly never was. Or might
have been, depending on your interpretation of what may or may not have
happened. Conchita Helena Maria de la Vegas and her team of intrepid,
battle-hardened technicians pounce on unsuspecting Bankia employees as they
leave work.
“Eh Juan. Tough day, si?”
“Not really, pretty average I’d say…”
Pick another one.
“Juanita, busier than usual today si?”
“Si, a bit. More withdrawals than usual, a few accounts
closed….”
“You’d say that people were panicking?”
“I’d say that they were concerned but…”
“But some might have panicked enough to close their
accounts and withdraw their money?”
“I suppose some might have been but…”
Bingo! Never mind the ‘buts’. An unstated number people on
hearing that the bank was to be partly nationalised had decided to move an
unsubstantiated amount of their money elsewhere. Man munches hapless mutt.
So was there a run on the bank or not? When there was a
run on the Northern Rock in the UK, there were news-clips of queues stretching
around the block. There was no doubt that people were closing their accounts in
large numbers. I must have missed those in the reports that I’ve looked at
about recent events in Spain. However, shares in Bankia did fall by thirty
percent, so bearing in mind the bank has been partly nationalised perhaps a
good time to consider buying. It might be instructive to see who buys when that
inevitably occurs. Manipulation, surely not.
Queen Angela
Fresh from her successful intervention in the French
presidential elections, ‘Iron’ Chancellor Angela Merkel apparently decided to
give a few helpful suggestions to beleaguered Greek President Karolos Papoulias, or not, depending on whose version of
events you believe. Of course it’s unlikely that a foreign head of government
would intervene in the internal electoral affairs of another country… sorry
that was a typo, I meant to say that it WAS unlikely, ‘was’ as in used to be.
Apparently, Frau Merkel has rewritten the rules. Given her recent track record,
President Obama is probably praying nightly that she publicly endorse
Republican candidate Mitt Romney in the November elections. To be fair, and why
not, it’s more than likely that she just mentioned in passing that the
forthcoming Greek elections might be seen in some quarters as a vote on whether
the Greek electorate wanted to stay in the Euro or not. That in itself reveals
a slight disconnect from reality though as none of the aspiring Greek prime
ministers are saying they want to leave the Eurozone, they just don’t want to
repay their debts. Well who does, but sometimes you just have to. Of course, if
you are unemployed, exist on dwindling state handouts and have no expectations
of things improving then it has to be conceded that repaying debts is somewhat
problematic. This is where perhaps a combined austerity/growth approach might
be the best long-term bet. However, ‘sie wollen sie, die dame is nicht fur das
drehen’. That may or may not translate into the immortal words of Queen Maggie
the first (you turn if you want to, the lady is not for turning). Fairly
shortly after that there was a palace coup and the UK bid farewell to La
Thatcher. Queen Angela might have noticed that her loyal subjects, aka the
German electorate, aren’t proving to be quite so loyal just at the moment. Either
she’ll turn or they will, turn her out that is.
Meanwhile Italian technocrat,
unelected Prime Minister ‘Super Mario’ Monti has asked journalists to stop
asking so many questions about the Italian economy. They have problems but
it’ll be OK in the end. It probably will, but ‘Super Mario’ needs to remember
the old adage, dog bites man no story but man munches mutt is big news. The
folks who strive to bring you ‘breaking news’ 24/7 can’t just sit in front of
the cameras and say ‘nothing has happened in the last ten minutes’, they have
to say something, even if they later change the story to fit the facts. In the
meantime, the moneymen circle like interested vultures seeking an opportunity
for a quick snack, but you can’t only blame them, own any shares do you? It’s
nice to see them increase in value (remember that?) and the dividends can come
in handy.
Now here’s an interesting
thought. Given that most commentators now seem to agree that Greece ‘cooked the
books’ when applying to join the euro and most if not all of the ‘gang’ already
in decided to turn a blind eye, who is actually to blame for this mess? Well
you certainly can’t accuse former Icelandic Prime Minister Geir Haarde,
although he was accused and convicted of complicity in the 2008 Icelandic banking
crisis. Perhaps there’ll be a choice of demonstrations in Europe this summer.
‘What do you think we should do today, play ‘pass the tear gas canisters’ with
the local gendarmerie or shall we converge on Brussels and see how many
politicians we can get into the dock?’
Meanwhile
On the other side of the World,
newly appointed Australian Foreign Minister Bob Carr was having difficulty
remembering which Chinese Government official said what to him during a series
of meetings in Beijing.
Australian Foreign ministers seem
to have difficulty with their memories. The last incumbent. Kevin Rudd, seemed
to forget that he was no longer Prime Minister, having previously been
effectively knifed in the back by Prime Minister Julia Gillard. Knifed or did
she use a stiletto? Never mind, Foreign Minister Carr finally decided that it
was probably his Chinese counterpart, Yang Jiechi, who told him that
that “the time for 'Cold War alliances' has long since passed."
No doubt he was also subtly reminded that twenty five
percent of Australia’s exports go to China, which also appears to own most of
the Australian mining industry. Be a shame if China went broke then, wouldn’t
it, but I’m sure that that wasn’t mentioned. No, what prompted the comment was
the recent deployment of American marines to Darwin. Under a recently signed
defence agreement, America can station troops in Northern Australia,
conveniently or inconveniently close to places where China currently enjoys
economic dominance. Particularly handy if America ever decided that they were
fed up with long-tern friend the Philippines being pushed around by China over
the Scarborough Shoals, a collection of coral atolls about one hundred and
twenty-odd miles away from the Philippines, Subic Bay in fact, and five hundred
away from the Chinese mainland.
Speaking of Subic Bay, the former US navy base in the
Philippines, China didn’t press its claim on the Scarborough Shoals until after
the US navy had vacated the base. Funny old thing that. It’s all about fishing
of course and just recently Beijing’s least favourite client state, North
Korea, has detained twenty-nine Chinese fishermen for illegally fishing in
their territorial waters. You can’t really blame the Chinese fishermen for
being confused; they fish everywhere else in the Pacific region.
Meanwhile, back at the Scarborough Shoals the Philippines
has suggested UN mediation over the sovereignty issue whilst China has
suggested that they have a bigger navy than the Philippines.
Beginning to join some dots up? I can’t verify this but I
believe that Lee Kuan Yew, Singaporean elder statesman and regional realist,
once remarked that you could say what you liked about America, but if they were
asked to leave a country they left, unlike some others who refused to go. I wonder
to whom he was referring?
All in all
A bit of a mess all round. Nothing a good war wouldn’t
sort out though, which is a worrying thought. That brings me on to my next
short topic.
I was slightly amused to read reports that two Turkish Air
force fighters were scrambled to intercept an Israeli reconnaissance flight
over Northern Cyprus. Just to join up a couple of dots, nobody except Turkey
recognises The Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) as an independent
state. Israel and Greek Cyprus, if I may put it like that, have recently begun
joint development of offshore gas fields, which of course Turkey would rather
like to get their hands on. Allegedly the Israeli aircraft penetrated TRNC
airspace ‘four or five times’, but the intercepting Turkish aircraft were
unable to visually confirm the Israeli Aircraft type. Strange then that they
should be so certain that it was an Israeli aircraft. Equally strange, given
that non-friendly air forces frequently intercept each other’s aircraft and
film them that the Turks didn’t get close enough to do the same.
Maybe the Israeli aircraft was under orders to avoid any
possible confrontation.
Maybe the
Turkish aircraft were under orders to avoid any possible confrontation in case
the Israeli aircraft wasn’t (think about that for a moment).
Maybe it
wasn’t an Israeli aircraft, but you can always blame them, everybody does.
Maybe, if any
of Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan’s senior military officers, or at least those
who aren’t in the slammer accused of plotting a military coup, dare mention it,
maybe Israel was testing Turkish air force reaction times.
And Finally
To end on a literary note. Emma the Agent has found an
illustrator for the ‘Trembling Tim’ stories. Negotiations are ongoing as are
sample illustrations. More next time, if there are developments.
Really
finally, I’m setting up (OK, daughter Pauline is setting up) my personal domain
name (whatever that is….now you know why Pauline is doing it)
I’ll let you
know when it’s up and running. There’ll be a notice on here and a redirecting
link.
@peterbernfeld
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