The Winds of Change are a-blowin'

Are they a  fully blown hurricane of a mere zephyr?

I decide to remain, metaphorically speaking, in the Middle East for this article because although interesting events are unfolding in Europe, it’s still too soon to make any assumptions about what may or may not arise phoenix-like from the ashes. Make no mistake though, the European project is in tatters. It will survive in some shape or form, of that I am certain, but for the moment, as they used to say on a childrens TV program, ‘anything can happen in the next half hour’.

Most of the news concerning the Middle East tends to be reported from a ‘Western-centric’ perspective, so I thought that it might be instructive to take a slightly sideways look at what’s happening in the region, seen from a variety of Middle-Eastern sources. Dominating the Western media is of course the upcoming presidential elections in Egypt, so why don’t we start there?

One aspect that has received some comment in the Western media is the fact the Islamist candidates are suffering a backlash at the moment. Ostensibly this has been caused by a demonstration organised by the Salafists, ultraconservative Islamists, outside the Egyptian Ministry of Defence building in Cairo, which resulted in the death of one soldier and injuries to others. Footage of gunmen seemingly firing from the minaret of a mosque at the soldiers was broadcast on Egyptian television and has received much negative comment. Predictably the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, in effect the current Egyptian Government, has been using this footage to tap into the average Egyptians respect for the army and promptly and loudly blamed the Muslim Brotherhood for the violence. In point of fact they weren’t involved in that particular demonstration and reportedly disbanded one that they had organised. However several Egyptian commentators have expressed the view that the Egyptian electorate doesn’t distinguish between Islamic organisations. That might be so and as we all know the outcome of revolutions can turn on a single event, but I suspect there is more to this than is immediately apparent. Perhaps what we are seeing is the Egyptian electorate realising exactly who, or what, they did elect to parliament and are having second thoughts about the desirability of Sharia law and all its implications.

Related to this is a decision by Egypts highest administrative court which ruled that the presidential elections must proceed as scheduled on may 23^rd. Additionally they upheld the right of the Election Commission to challenge a law barring some former members of the Mubarak administration from standing for president. The same Election Commission had previously barred the Muslim brotherhood’s preferred presidential candidate from standing in the up coming election, which sparked off the protests outside the Ministry of Defence buildings. The Military Government of course appointed the Election Commision, so predictably and possibly quite accurately the Islamist parties who form the largest group in the recently elected parliament have accused the Military of trying to retain power. Also predictably, Israeli commentators in particular and Western commentators in general are focussing on the fact that the Islamists will control the parliament no matter which candidate wins the presidential election, but in the rush to be concerned they have missed a few interesting ‘straws in the wind’.

The first straw that blew passed my window had one Mahmoud Zahar clinging to it. Zahar, described by various sources as a ‘top Hamas official in Gaza’, has just taken an interesting step that possibly has wider-reaching implications. He’s claimed Egyptian citizenship under a law allowing the children of Egyptian mothers to obtain an Egyptian passport. This law has been either in existence for some time but the Mubarak regime wouldn’t allow such claims or it’s been passed since the fall of the former regime, the background is a little unclear. Zahar has proudly announced his intention to vote for an Islamist presidential candidate who he feels will be more pro-Palestinian than the Mubarak Government was. Well that’s fine, he’s entitled to vote now that he is an Egyptian citizen, and he’s not alone. Several hundreds of Palestinians with Egyptian mothers have also been granted citizenship and reportedly there are thousands of Egyptian families with Palestinian children. This does mean of course that they are no longer refugees and they have a country of residence. Nobody is making much of this at the moment, but sooner or later somebody will ask an embarrassing question about UN funding for the now former refugees. That might lead to a look at the number of Palestinians on the West Bank who hold Jordanian passports. Previously, these individuals could claim that Jordanian law discriminated against them in the matter of land and property ownership in Jordan, but following recent legislation in that country this is no longer the case. So in effect, they are no longer refugees either. Anybody say anything about unforseen consequences? Remember you read it here first folks.

The second straw had a report from that stronghold of liberal thought and progressive social policies Saudi Arabia, tied to it. King Abdullah has just fired Sheikh Abdelmohsen al-Obeikan. Who? Formerly an advisor to the Royal Court and now spending more time with his family, al-Obeikan was very definitely not of a progessive bent and opposed amongst other things the relaxation of gender segregation. I take that to mean that he wasn’t keen on the idea of men and women meeting socially or at work, God forbid that they should actually talk to each other, the women might actually express an opinion or two. According to the former advisor, not actually quoted in the Saudi press but he was elsewhere, there were moves afoot by "influential people to corrupt Muslim society by trying to change the natural status of women". As one of those ‘influential people’ just happened to be his former boss King Abdullah, there was no way that opposition to this radical, shameful idea was a good career move. So this ‘corruption of Muslim society’ is just a blatant attempt by the Saudi monarchy to prevent another outbreak of the ‘Arab Spring’ and hang on to absolute power then? Just possibly not, but you’ll have to follow me whilst I join up the dots. In the meantime, just to prove that al-Obeikan himself is a bit of a closet reformer, this was his vision of how to go about relaxing gender-segregation. Several years ago he issued a decree suggesting that unrelated Saudi men and women could mix so long as the man drank the woman's breast milk, thus creating a maternal bond between them. He didn’t specify as to whether this should be done before they met and did not propose a method of drinking of the breast milk. And that some people think that men and women shouldn’t shake hands!

King Abdullah is not your average repressive absolute monarch, he has some strange ideas. He thinks that eventually women should be allowed to vote in elections, whatever they are, has opened a co-educational university in Saudi Arabia and has introduced measures against domestic violence, presumably this refers to violence against women and not other domestic animals. Additionally, last January he replaced the head of the Mutawa, the religious police, with somebody regarded as being more liberally-minded. More liberally-minded probably being a comparison and not a comment on the present-incumbents actual views. At this rate, they’ll be allowing Princess Basma Bint Saud back home. Who? A journalist now living in London, she is the youngest daughter of the late King Saud. Taken by her Syrian mother to live in Beirut, when the civil war broke out in 1975 they went to London. Obviously a close-knit family then. She had attended a Christian missionary school whilst in Beirut (which might explain going to London not Riyad) and after finishing her education off in Switzerland at some point returned to Saudi Arabia and married. Despite her early education by French Missionary nuns, she is a committed Muslim. After her divorce and subsequently starting a chain of restaurants in Saudi Arabia, she moved back to London with three of her children. Unusual for a divorced Saudi woman to have custody of her children, nethertheless she managed it. She gave several interviews and wrote articles about the status of women in Saudi Arabia whilst in Saudi Arabia, particularly in favour of the reform reform of divorce laws, and her writing was censured.  She says this had nothing to do with the decision to return to London, where she has also commented publicly on Sharia law, the role of women in Saudi society and perhaps tellingly the relaxation of the rules governing the segragation of men and women. She is careful to not blame the Saudi royal family for any repression; rather she blames ‘govenors and middle managers.’ Such as al-Obeikan perhaps. All in all, her comments are thoughtful and dare one say respectful but critical of certain aspects of the current Saudi interpretation of Islam. If she were to ask my advice I’d say buy a smart new set of luggage but don’t buy the airline ticket home just yet.

So what’s going on? Obviously there’s an attempt to loosen the reins, but I feel there is more to it than that. Most people know, even if it’s not a topic of daily conversation, that the brand of Islam in Saudi Arabia is Wahhabism. This is a very strict branch of Sunni Islam, and doesn’t have many other adherents in the Arabian peninsular. Now it starts to get interesting. The current king, Abdullah, received a traditional religious education but is not known to share the puritanical view of Islam espoused by the religious authorities in Saudi Arabia. He does however have an empathy with the traditional Saudi way of life, and in that context is cautiously embarking on reform, believing that it will prevent internal strife. Another straw in the wind, the ruling Al Saud family, rulers of the area known as the Hejaz, were exiled to Kuwait in 1891 following a power struggle, before returning in 1902 and over a period of time seizing and consolidating power in what would become Saudi Arabia, with the help of the Ikwahan or brotherhood, a sect based on Wahhabism. The sect and the Al Sauds fell out in 1912 and what is happening now is possibly Abdullah finally starting to cut the remaining ties.

All very interesting, but where is this taking us? How about the tribal ties between the Gulf States (excluding Oman) and Saudi Arabia? The inhabitants of the remaining Gulf States, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar and Bahrain share a tribal heritage. Most of the populations originate from either what is now Saudi Arabia or Yemen and as we know, tribal alliegences are still strong in the Arab world. So what? Well you might have heard of the Cooperation Council Gulf for the Arab States of the Gulf (CCASG). Maybe you weren’t sure exactly what it was called, but now you know. This organisation has been in existence since 1981.

Its major objectives included:

Passing similar legislation in various fields such as economy, finance, trade, customs, tourism, legislation, and administration.

Encouraging scientific and technical progress in industry, mining, agriculture, water and animal resources.

Establishing scientific research centers.

Establishing joint ventures.

Creating a unified military presence (Peninsula Shield Force).

Encouraging cooperation of the private sector.

Strengthening ties between their peoples.

Establishing a common currency by 2010.

The latter objective has fallen by the wayside. Oman pulled out in 2006 and the UAE was miffed when it was proposed that the central bank be located in Saudi Arabia.

The Gulf region had a rapidly growing economy and most of the Gulf countries had an eye to establishing sufficient currency reserves to cushion falling revenues as the oil begins to run out. Unfortunately, when confronted with an economic downturn, most of the countries resorted to what amounted to bribing their citizens to maintain internal stability. A fine example of this occurred in Saudi Arabia itself when the local stock market took a dive, along with every other stock market worldwide. A member of the Royal Family stepped up to the plate and injected several hundred million US dollars into the market by purchasing tanking stock. Predictably the price of the stock rose and everybody's portfolio recovered in value. Saudis thought their Royal family was wonderful. For now. This is not a workable long-term economic strategy. Most of the Gulf States import cheap labour. This means that citizens either do nothing or occupy senior management positions whilst still enjoying State handouts, based on the oil revenues. Saudi Arabia must have the highest number of Phds in Islamic studies per head of population in the entire world, perhaps good for the spiritual side of life but when you need doctors, engineers and scientists it’s a drag on the economy rather than a stimulant.

Faced with a variety of external and internal problems, the CCASG countries announced in March 2012 that the organisation would be evolving from a regional bloc to a confederation. Now the word confederation has two meanings, but in 21^st century political terms it has come to mean a permanent union of several political entities to deal with other political entities. This will eventually lead to a central government, but in the early stages of development will mean joint economic and military endeavours. So purely hypothetically, let’s say that the Gulf States were becoming concerned about, oh I don’t know, Iran, just mentioning a country off the top of my head for no particular reason. Let’s just say that they, the Arab Gulf countries, decided to form a regional power block of Arab Monarchys, some more liberal and quasi-democratic than others, but all enjoying greater or lesser tribal links and similar cultures and the same language. And lets suppose that this regional bloc had had to intervene militarily in a member state, which for the purposes of this article we’ll refer to as Bahrain, to preserve internal order. Or supress a revolt by the oppressed Shia majority, depending on your point of view. Let’s further suppose that the largest of these countries, having control over the holy city of Mecca, regarded itself as the de facto leader of the Islamic World. If you were the absolute monarch of such a country,  the strongest military and economic entity in the evolving confederation, wouldn’t you sit in your desert palace and dream dreams of empire, or in modern 21^st century terms, being the strong central government of a confederation? And of course, as an absolute monarch, you might feel moved to make your country more attractive to the citizens of the other confederation members by liberalising certain aspects of day to day life. You might even reflect on the fact that Switzerland is officially a confederation. Hmm, SaudGulfAbia? Switzerland sans cookoo clocks, chocolate and Alpenhorns. Dubai has a ski resort though.

Straws in the wind?

Perhaps.

Perhaps not.

@PeterBernfeld

Iran part two

                                                           Will they or won’t they?

If you haven’t got around to reading the IAEA fifteen page report, I think it’s fair to summarise it as; smoking gun not found, but there was a whiff of cordite in the air. Certainly the report could find no credible reason for enriching uranium to twenty percent, as Iran is currently doing, when the centrifuges work that is. They also were unconvinced of the need for Iran to investigate a trigger mechanism, whilst conceding that it could have some civilian applications. Iran did not appear to be pursuing any of those applications.

Let’s consider why Iran would want a civilian nuclear power program. Why would any country want to pursue a nuclear power program? The two most obvious answers are little or no access to fosil fuels for a variety of reasons and a forecast increase in power demand which existing power generation facilities will not be able to meet. In fact, let’s take a brief overview of Iran as a country. I’ll give you some bald facts, most valid as of January 2012 and drawn from a variety of sources. Naturally, I can make no claim for the veracity of these figures, which in many cases are estimates (not mine).

The population was 77,891,220 as of July 2011.

Of these, 70.9% were in the age group 14-64.

The median age was 26.8 years

Population growth estimated at 1.24% pa

Life expectancy at birth 70.06 years (don’t you just love statistics)

 The literacy rate of fifteen to twenty four year olds is claimed as 98.7%.

HIV/AIDS adult prevelance rate 0.2% (2009 estimate)

For those like me who didn’t know, the prevelance rate is found by dividing the number of those living with HIV/AIDS by the total number of population.

So all in all, apart from a low life expectancy, a reasonable picture. Not an aging population and population growth is reasonable but hardly explosive.

Ethnic groups: Persian 61%, Azeri 16%, Kurd 10%, Lur 6%, Baloch 2%, Arab 2%, Turkmen and Turkic tribes 2%, other 1% (2008 est.)

OK, well I can see some potential problems there, bearing in mind that Iran is still a fairly tribal society outside of the major cities. The Kurds are a potential source of conflict because of pan-Kurdish aspirations to an independent Kurdistan and for anybody who might have been unsure, Iran is very definitely NOT an Arab nation.

Religions: Muslim (official) 98% (Shia 89%, Sunni 9%), other (includes Zoroastrian, Jewish, Christian, and Baha'i) 2%. No surprises there, I’m sure.

Taking a brief overview of the economy, we find that most industries are state owned and run, inefficiently by all accounts, and there is an over- reliance on the oil industry. Inflation is high and no doubt getting higher whilst unemployment is in double-digit figures. There is an ongoing-problem with people leaving the country to seek employment.

 There are state subsidies on food and energy, which Ahmadinejad has been trying to cut for a number of years, no doubt why the Majlis (parliament) summoned him to explain the state of the economy.

There is not much publicly available information on manufacturing industries, the inference being that these are small-scale family-run affairs. This is important when we come to look at the energy sector. What this does mean is that things like ‘white goods’ have to be imported and this is where sanctions will be biting.

Agriculture: products listed are wheat, rice, other grains, sugar beets, sugar cane, fruits, nuts, cotton; dairy products, wool; caviar. I could find no mention of meat production or fishing, but they must exist, if only on a family-enterprise level.

Natural resources: petroleum, natural gas, coal, chromium, copper, iron ore, lead, manganese, zinc, sulfur

The picture I have is of a non-industrial country, probably able to feed itself but nor particularly well or reliably. There have been reports of Iran trying to buy rice from other countries. Beef and veal imports have been falling quite dramatically since 2010. I can find nothing to suggest that Iranian meat production has risen to meet the drop in imports, so the implication is that meat consumption must be falling, probably either as a result of sanctions or lack of foreign currency.

Let’s take a look at the energy sector, again sorry for a stream of figures, but they tell an interesting story.

Oil - production: 4.252 million bbl/day (2010 est)

Oil - consumption: 1.845 million bbl/day (2010 est)

Oil - exports: 2.523 million bbl/day (2009 est.)

Oil - imports: 297,100 bbl/day (2009 est.)

These figures include oil products. They do not take into account any fluctuation in oil reserves. Overall, a healthy picture one would say, provided of course the oil exports continue. But remember the question, why would Iran want to develop a civilian nuclear industry?

Proven Oil reserves: 137 billion bbl based on Iranian claims.
 Iran has about 10% of world reserves (1 January 2011 est.)

My maths is not of the highest calibre, but I reckon that’s about one hundred years worth of oil in the ground, assuming they don’t find any more. For a democratically elected government, not a real looming problem but for a theocracy with perhaps a longer view, well maybe. Oil of course is not everything.

Natural gas reserves: 41.41 Trillion (yup, trillion) cu m

Natural gas production: 138.5 billion cu m (2010 est.)

Natural gas consumption: 137 billion cu m  (2010 est)

I’m beginning to think that Iran might just possibly be in great shape, from an energy perspective, particularly when a further gas reserve estimated at 1.42 trillion cu m was discovered in the Iranian part of the Caspian Sea in late 2011. Then there’s renewable energy sources, which brings us to the final set of figures, electricity (or electrickery if you prefer). These figures show the annual electricity generated expressed in kilowatt-hours. There are figures available which show estimated losses in power transmission and electricity exported, but let’s keep it simple.

Electricity generated: 212.8 billion kWh (2009 est.)

Electricity - consumption: 206.7 billion kWh (2009 est.)

Electricity from renewable sources: 7.46 billion kWh (2009.)

My friends, Iran needs nuclear energy with all its associated problems like a hole in the head. There is no push for rapid industrialisation hence no plausible claim of a dramatic future increase in demand for power. If, a big if, a decision had been taken to leave the oil and gas in the ground and look for other energy sources then why would you re-invent the wheel and go for old nuclear technology? You’d want the latest, safest most future-proof ‘kit’ that you could buy or persuade somebody to give you and if that meant you had make a few new friends in order to lay your hands on this equipment without upsetting a lot of people then you’d do that. As we all know, Iran has not chosen to do this, so there are two possible conclusions:

     1) The new friends that they would have to make are unnaceptable to them.

2)      They are developing nuclear weapons and need the cover of a civilian nuclear industry.

                                    The Great Satan and The Little Satan.

Just in case you’ve been holidaying off the planet for the last thirty-three years, the above is how Iran refers to America and Israel respectively. Now America has nuclear weapons and a civilian nuclear energy program. Israel has a 1950s nuclear plant at Dimona, built with the French, which is widely believed to produce weapons grade plutonium. To avoid reliance on imported coal and seeking a clean form of electricity, they proposed a joint civilian nuclear program with Jordan, under French supervision, but this was rejected by Jordan as inapropriate until the question of a Palestinian state had been resolved. Currently both Israel and Jordan import Egyptian natural gas, but recently Israel has accelerated development of off-shore gas fields and has large reserves of Shale Oil, but there are environmental concerns connected with developing those.

So, if you were Iran you’d probably turn to France for nuclear expertise if you didn’t want to talk to America. Nope, impressed by the technology of Chernobyl they went to Russia. If you believe the CIA, and I mean who wouldn’t, they also sought advice from Pakistan and North Korea, both of whom have nuclear weapons but not much in the way of a civilian nuclear power industry. Hmmm. It certainly looks like a duck as it waddles and quacks its way across the farmyard, but why would Iran want  nuclear weapons?

The conventional answer to that would be to make themselves safe from attack, but attack by whom? Well, America and Israel obviously, but would having nuclear weapons, or trying to acquire them, actually make them safer? Iran would probably point to North Korea as proof that having some sort of nuclear capability would mean they were safe from attack. I would direct your and their attention to Pakistan, whose sovereignty is regularly ignored by American ground forces and drones in pursuit of Taliban forces and the odd remaining Al Qaeda figure. I am saying that Pakistan having nuclear weapons hasn’t prevented American incursions whether in hot pursuit, intelligence gathering operations or targeted assasinations. Given that American /Iranian relations since the 1979 revolution in Iran have been rocky to put it mildly, I can see that the Iranians would be looking over their shoulders much of the time. There have been armed clashes between the two countries (America and Iran) and of course Iran sponsors both Hezbollah and Hamas. The former has directly attacked American forces in Lebanon whilst they were there and both organisations launch attacks against Israel. There is absolutely no love lost between either Iran and America and Iran and Israel. I won’t detail all the clashes, they’re in the public domain. Iran offered an olive branch after the invasion of Iraq and Bush (2) rejected it. Obama offered an olive branch and Iran rejected it. Round and round we go and it might be tempting to be slightly sympathetic to Iran’s desire to obtain a credible deterent except for one thing.

                                            Iranian regional ambitions and Religion.

OK I know, that’s two things. Let’s look at Religion, as that and regional ambitions are closely linked.

The Iranian vesion of Islam is Shia. The split between Shia and Sunni Islam occurred roughly eleven hundred years ago and they’ve been at each others’ throats ever since. For those interested there is much information readily available about this and I don’t intend to rehash it here. It is true to say that Shia hate Sunni almost as much, occasionally more, than they hate Christians and Jews. It’s also true to say that more Muslims have been killed by Muslims than anybody else combined and this can lead to some interesting although largely under-reported problems in the Persian Gulf area.

 Kuwait. Predominantly Sunni, 15-20% Shia, many Farsi speaking.

Bahrain. The Royal family is Sunni but the Muslim population is predominantly Shia (66-70%).

Qatar. Sunni, but 10% of the population are ethnically Iranian

UAE. Mainly Sunni.

Iraq. 60% of the population is Shia, government is Sunni.

Although Iran can and does ferment trouble in Arab countries with Shia minorities, one has to realise that there is no love lost between Iranians and Arabs in general. The chances of Iran establishing a Shia ‘empire’ in the Gulf area are slim, but that doesn’t stop them trying. One reason why they were unable to export their 1979 revolution was that there is a long-standing suspicion, historically correct, that Iran (previously Persia) wanted to establish leadership of the Muslim world. 88% of the Muslim World is Sunni, so this is unlikely to happen, but there are regular clashes. Probably the only thing that prevents the Arabs and Iranians having a re-run of the 1980s Iran/Iraq war is a mutual hatred of Israel, but sometimes it is a close-run thing. The Muslim world is adept at keeping these internal divisions out of the public gaze, again usually by attacking Israel in some way or other. For those who might be tempted to think that if Israel suddenly ceased to exist, or that suddenly the Palestinians achieved statehood all would be sweeetness and light in the Middle East, think again.

Iranian Shias are ‘twelvers’, that is they believe that the Twelth Iman, Muhhamad ibn al-Hassan never actually died and exists in what is referred to as the Occultation. They expect his return, as the Mahdi, at the end times. I suggest you Google these terms to gain a deeper understanding as I’ve decided that this is not going to be a three-part posting, and as I’m no Islamic scholar I have no wish to misinform in my ignorance.

Now I’m going to make a bit of a sweeping generalisation here for the sake of brevity. Most religions have some version of ‘end times’, with a variety of signs and portents, but most seem content for God to work in his own time. The Iranian Shias however, whilst believing that one of the signs of the approaching end of times is widespread destruction and death, in common with other adherents of the general belief, also believe that Mankind can hasten the arrival of the Mahdi by actually causing this widespread destruction. They, in the form of Ahmadinejad who is only a mouthpiece remember and the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, have on occasions publicly called for the destruction of the State of Israel, the physical destruction that is. There is an annual ‘Holocaust Denial Day’ in Iran and public demonstrations against both Israel and America, but more of that in a moment. Perhaps most chillingly, given that he is the real power, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was quoted by Iranian state television as saying, in 2006,

“The Islamic Republic of Iran has made its own decision and in the nuclear case, God willing, with patience and power, will continue its path.”

In a public address in 2008 Khamenei claimed that in the event of war against “enemies,” Iran  

 “will strike at them with all our capabilities”

Others in the Iranian government structure regularly make calls for war against Israel and war against America. Given the nature of the government, one might assume that they are not going out on a limb by making such statements.

There are glimmers of hope. Ali Khameni is not known as a radical cleric, despite the above quotes and has shown himself capable of holding the more conservative clerics in check. He is clearly concerned about Irans’ economic woes, not the concern one would associate with a man who is both prepared and preparing to pull the house down on his own head. Countering that, in 2008 he implied that Iran would use nuclear weapons in a war and was vague as to whether their use would depend on Iran being attacked or if they would be used if Iran initiates the war. If you couple that with the calls for the destruction of Israel, Iran’s logistical support for Hamas, a Sunni organisation which ideologically they detest, in their fight against Israel and the support for Hezbollah, it’s no wonder that Israeli leaders are losing sleep. They aren’t the only ones in the region either. Sunni and non-Shia Muslim countries view Iran with the deepest suspicions.

So would they or wouldn’t they? I’m afraid it really comes down to can any country afford to take the chance. In Israel’s case, they physically cannot absorb a nuclear attack. In America’s case, although the ‘homeland’ might not be directly physically threatened, most certainly American interests in the region are vulnerable. Arab states worry about ‘nuclear blackmail’ and local Shia populations causing internal trouble.

Up to now, Israel has employed a sort of ‘good cop/bad cop’ routine in order to convince the rest of the World of the urgency of pressing Iran to cease weapons development. Both a former head of the Mossad and a former head of Shin Bet (internal security) have publicly cautioned Prime Minister Netanyahu against precipitate action, stating that an attack on Iran would provoke a wider regional conflict. They also both stated that Iran’s leadership (unspecified as to who they were referring) was ‘logical’. Although there might have been a degree of internal politics intruding, both presented a sound case for doing nothing right now. Neither said ‘don’t’, they really said ‘not yet’. A former head of the IDF has spoken in general terms about the problems in mounting an attack on Iran and also spoke of causing a wider conflict. President Obama has acknowledged that Israel’s timetable for possible action is shorter and more urgent than America’s, but has shown no signs of easing up the pressure on Iran. On the contrary, air ‘assets’ have reportedly been moved into SW Asia. The war drums are beating, with many saying better sooner, before they have any chance of developing a weapon.

Will Israel attack alone? I could easily be proven wrong here but I think the answer is probably not, or at least not yet. Israel would face formidable logistical challenges in mounting an effective attack and would not want to be seen as dragging America into an escalating conflict that Obama is not seeking. Or at least not seeking yet. America has a long memory and the humiliating 1979 hostage situation still rankles. In the meantime there is an election for Obama to win.

I’ll end with some random thoughts.

Post 9/11 Iranian women spontaniously held a candle-lit vigil for the victims. The vigil was dispersed.

The ‘possibly up to 20 million’ Basjid Militia indicate where the security concerns of the Iranian government  actually lay.

Iran could not hope to win in a military confrontation with America, so why give the Americans a ready-made excuse to attack them? Maybe a way of unifying the country? Wearing America down by repeated conflicts?

If America attacks, it had better be ready, and plan, for ‘boots on the ground’ and regime change. Both sides must know this, so is Iran preparing for a climb-down after playing brinkmanship?

Are sanctions causing internal problems of such magnitude that the Iranian government is actually fearful of a counter-revolution and wishes to provoke an attack, thus unifying the people against an external threat?

Israeli President Shimon Peres addressed the Iranian people in an Iranian new years’ message. He said there was a long history of friendship between the Iranian/Persian people and the Jews and Israel did not seek a conflict with the Iranian people  . The point about the history of friendship is actually quite true and I have not added any emphasis.

There is growing evidence of internal unrest in Iran, probably encouraged by both Israel and America. An ‘undeclared cyber way’ is also being played out.

There is a long history of mutual misunderstanding between America and Revolutionary Iran and it could just be that Iran has overplayed their hand. Time will tell, but I fear the sands of time are rapidly running out.


@PeterBernfeld

Iran, part one

Are they or aren’t they? Will they or won’t they?

Before I answer my own questions, it might be as well to give a necessarily brief overview of the Iranian Government structure. Most people will have no difficulty as identifying Iran as a theocratic state, in point of fact the only one in the world today unless you were to count the Vatican as a country, but it’s instructive to look at the actual structure, reporting paths, which positions are filled by elected representatives and where the power actually resides.

The Islamic republic of Iran is run on the principles of velayat e faqih, or the Rule of Islamic Jurisprudence. These principles give the Supreme leader, a cleric, power over secular institutions, whether elected or appointed. The current Supreme Leader of Iran is Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the second person to hold the post since the founding of the Islamic republic of Iran, the first of course being Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomenei. There are quite possibly thousands of Ayatollahs in Iran, Ayatollah simply meaning one who is well versed in Islamic law, is qualified to act as a judge and can issue edicts. Wikipedia suggests that an equivalent ‘rank’, if one can use that word, would be a bishop, and who am I to argue with the font of all knowledge. A Grand Ayatolla is simply one to whom other Ayatollahs frequently refer to for guidance in interpreting Islamic matters and who publishes this guidance in book form. Important to note that we are talking about Shia Islam, not Sunni, in case there was any question in the readers’ minds.

The Supreme Leader was/is elected by the Assembly of Experts, eighty six Islamic scholars who are elected to an eight year term of office by direct public vote. Whether any more than the chosen eighty six ever stand for election might be open to debate, however they are the only clerical body selected by direct public election and in theory at least can hold the Supreme Leader to account. They have a busy schedule, being charged with meeting twice a year, each meeting to last at least two days. I have not been able to unearth any reports of these meetings so am unable to comment on their ability to censure the Supreme Leader, although in theory at least they are able to replace him.

Next we have the Guardian Council. This consists of twelve members, six appointed by the Supreme Leader and six nominated by the judiciary. The six nominees are then approved by Parliament. One point to note here is that the head of the Judiciary is appointed by the Supreme leader and can presumably be summarily removed from office by him, should the six Judiciary nominees not meet with the Supreme leader’s approval. I have not delved deep enough to assertain whether Parliament has ever not approved the six nominated candidates, but it would come as something of a surprise to me if they had ever rejected a candidate. The powers of the Guardian Council include that of vetoing any bill passed by Parliament that they consider violates Islamic principles or the Iranian constitution and all passed bills must be approved by the Council before becoming law. Finally, the Guardian Council must approve all presidential candidates before they are able to stand for election. This means that a female President of Iran is unlikely any time soon, although in fairness I should point out that several women do hold the ‘equivalent rank’ of Ayatollah and they are known as Lady Mujtahideh.

At the pinnacle of all this we have the Supreme Leader. Apart from selecting six members of the Guardian Council and appointing the head of the Judiciary, he also appoints the chief judge and the chief prosecutor, not to mention all special tribunals. At the risk of sounding a bit like ‘what have the Romans ever done for us?’ he also appoints the heads of all the armed forces, he himself being Commander of the same. He appoints the head of national radio and television network, all prayer leaders in city mosques, the heads of all religious foundations and members of all National Security Councils. Not a lad to be trifled with and doubtless why he is occasionally pictured smiling. Politicians and other Ayatollahs have fallen out with Khamenei in the past. He is still Supreme Leader whilst in the main they get to spend a lot of time at home. Under house arrest.

So much for the clerics. The President of Iran is elected by direct vote, those over the age of eighteen, male or female, being eligible to vote. Remember though, all candidates have to be approved by the Guardian Council, which in effect means the Supreme Leader. The President has no control over either the military or foreign policy, or even questions of national security. He does however get to nominate the Ministers for Security and defence, subject to approval by the Supreme Leader. The Parliament or Majlis then confirm or not (think so???) these nominees.

The Majlis consists of two hundred and ninety directly elected members, but all candidates must be approved by…… you’ve guessed, the Guardian Council. You remember them, six members appointed by the Supreme Leader and six candidates nominated by the Judiciary for approval by the Majlis. The head of the Judiciary being of course appointed by the Supreme leader (beginning to see a common thread here?). The Majlis are responsible for formulating and voting on all bills, which then have to be vetted by the Guardian Council before becoming law. The Majlis ratifies all international treaties, which considering Foreign Policy is the preserve of the Supreme Leader, the debate probably consists of ‘sign here’. They approve the budget, an interesting process at the moment I should imagine, and can impeach the President. Recently the current incumbent, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, was summoned to appear before the Majlis to explain the dismal economic performance of the country. Would it be naive to suggest that the Supreme leader was unhappy about the way things are going?

We’re nearly there, stay with me. I know all this is in the public domain, but for those who aren’t familiar with it (my dears, on the Clapham Omnibus I’m told they speak of nothing else) or don’t commute on the aforementioned omnibus, it’s important that you realise who exercises the real power in Iran. Speaking of which, we now come to the Expediency Council, which mediates between the Majlis and the Guardian Council (scroll up to see who selects them) in the event of a passed proposed law being vetoed by the Guardian Council. The Expediency Council consists of around twenty to thirty members appointed by…. the Supreme leader, who appoints them for five year terms but can re-appoint them indefinately. Nothing like having an unbiased mediation council, and from the sound of it this is nothing like an unbiased mediation council. There are other government bodies but for our purposes, and most probably the Supreme leader’s, they are irrelevant.

Finally, wake up there boy/girl at the back! We have the Military, and we all remember who appoints the heads of each of the branches. Iran has an Army, Navy and Airforce, as well as the Revolutionary Guard, who are in charge of Internal Security. There are believed to be approximately eight hundred thousand members of the armed forces and around one hundred and twenty five thousand or so members of the revolutionary Guard. These figures however disguise the true story, because the revolutionary Guard also control an organisation known as the Basjid Militia. Estimates of their numbers varies from four hundred thousand to close to twenty million. This lot function as a cross between the Saudi religious police and the French CRS. They are called upon to ‘deal’ with any civil unrest, but as they are not technically a government force but volunteers, when they throw people out of high rise buildings the government can deny all responsibility. Seems pretty clear to me where the Supreme Leader thinks the real danger to the Islamic republic is.

Right then, now I can answer my own questions, the first one being ‘are they or aren’t they?’ Pursuing the development of Nuclear Weapons that is. Leaving aside the pronouncements of the Rabid Right, be they in America, Israel or elsewhere the nearest we can come to answering this question is the fifteen page report of the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency), dated the eigth of November 2011. Yes, I did say fifteen pages, read it for yourselves at:

http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Board/2011/gov2011-65.pdf

The IAEA expresses concern on page 10, section K para 53. I won’t quote it directly because Amazon apparently don’t like it, even though it is in the public domain. Suffice it to say the IAEA finds reports of activities concerned with non-civilian applications of nuclear power credible. As far as Iran is concerned, the sting in the tale of the report comes in the annexe. There one finds detailed evidence of development of ‘triggers’ necessary to cause a nuclear detonation. Because the IAEA report deals in facts not speculation, it does say that these triggers can have civilian applications, although so limited as to be unlikely to be connected with anything but the development of a nuclear weapon. Pretty conclusive stuff, fact-based and not speculation. Read it for yourself and you’ll understand why the World (OK, most of the World) drew a sharp breath and all of a sudden sanctions were being agreed on.

Are those sanctions working? Well the Majlis (possibly following a subtle hint from the Supreme Leader) summoned Ahmadinejad to explain the under-performance of the Iranian economy. Since then, ‘something’ (please excuse my wry smile) appears to have disrupted operations at the main Iranian Oil Terminal at Kharg Island albeit on a temporary basis and Iranian banks are finding it difficult if not quite impossible to conduct business. There are still countries importing Iranian oil, but they are finding it impossible due to sanctions to obtain insurance cover from companies in the EU and the US and almost impossible to get coverage elsewhere. China did make vague noises about providing such insurance cover but as the old football supporters chant goes ‘it’s all gone quiet over there’. India has said that state run insurance agencies will provide up to $50 million Protection and Indemnity coverage per voyage, but insurance industry commentators have said that this falls below the amount of liability that might arise from any incident. By way of contrast, Japan has offered just $8 million insurance cover per voyage and China is talking about Sovereign Indemnity. That sounds suspiciously like my insurance cover when I hit the reef in Fiji and means that in the event of any liability China will have to open its wallet and say ‘help yourself.

Sunil Thapar of Shipping Corp of India, the country's largest shipping firm with a fleet of 29 crude carriers, has said that it may take some time for this facility to become available, due to risk to the state insurers. In the meantime, India during fiscal year 2011/12 was contracted to import 362,000 bpd (barrels per day) of Iranian oil but actually imported less than 340,000 bpd. Currently the imports are running at 280,000 bpd. Iran exports most of its 2.2 million bpd to Asia, but for how much longer?  Well certainly up to July 1^st, when all EU cover ceases for oil spills. Unnamed Indian Shipping Indusry sources have said (last month) that they would continue to transport Iranian oil regardless. They will, until something goes wrong.

Based on the above, I would say that sanctions are biting, and nor just on the Iranian Government. Following the introduction of sanctions in the banking sector, namely refusing to allow Iranian banks to use SWIFT code transactions, the folks back home are going to find it impossible to get money from the folks overseas. Just possibly the up to twenty million members of the Basjid Militia might find themselves gainfully employed in the not too distant future.

So now ‘will they or won’t they?’

This is really a two-part question. Will they continue to develop nuclear weapons and if they do, will they use them before they get unwanted guests?

Now I’ve marginally exceeded my two thousand word self-imposed limit, so you’re going to have to wait a couple of days for the answer, or at least what I think the answer might be. I won’t make you wait a week, but it will be a couple of days. In the meantime, if you see President Ahmadinejad making a statement about Iran’s nuclear program, remember it isn’t his statement, he’s acting as a deniable mouthpiece. He has no say in foreign policy or defence matters. It’s what the Supreme Leader says that counts and although he doesn’t make many public statements, those he has made are providing many people with sleepless night, although they aren’t talking about it much either.

For those of you with a Kindle

I'm writing this on the 4th of May in Fiji at 0730, the blog will be available on Kindle in the next couple of days. It will be listed on Amazon as 'Roast Beef on Sundays', author Peter. N. Bernfeld. There will be a cost, however you'll be contributing to my cruising fund, now sadly depleted. For those of you without a Kindle my witterings will still be available free here, or you might like to consider clicking on one of the links and purchasing a Kindle.

Thanks to all of you who do take the time to read the blog. I'm constantly amazed at how many of you are interested in my thoughts, and what a geographically diverse bunch you are. Speaking of which, I know that the blog is available in the UK and the USA. I believe it is available worlde-wide, but I'm Amazon will say 'non' if it isn't and you try to subscribe.

Chapter One. What do you think?

Mildly amusing, nearly wet yourself or a bit boring? Let me know.
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Late August evening, Christmas Day, Boxing Day morning

A beautiful early evening in late August, the sort of evening that middle-aged people think that every evening in late August was like when they were young, only usually of course they weren’t. Mind you, those same people looking at photos of themselves taken during those misremembered beautiful evenings in late August always seem to remark that somehow or other they miraculously look slimmer, chicer and altogether more attractive than they felt themselves to be when the photos were taken. This only goes to prove that either most middle-aged people need to visit an optician as a matter of some urgency or they missed an awful lot of opportunities when they were younger.

Situated in a picturesque small river valley surrounded by gently rolling heavily-wooded hills and built in the 1950’s complete with thatched roof, authentic oak-type beams and a tourist-tempting history that was total bollocks but nethertheless highly imaginative and vaguely entertaining, the old Cornishire smugglers pub ‘The Cocked Pistol’ boasted a family-friendly garden. A slightly rotund, pixie-like figure five and a half feet tall, un- athletically built with a bald pate and a one inch wide band of curly hair running around his head starting from his ears and meeting at the back, was sitting on a quaint but uncomfortable and guano-encrusted wooden bench. Taking a reflective sip of his pint of the acclaimed local bitter, Fetid Old Socks, Detective Chief Inspector Leon Karno, inevitably ‘Fred’ to his schoolmates and contempories, was looking at just such a photo, taken on just such an evening. ‘Guv’ to those detectives who worked under his somewhat quixotic direction in the Cornishire CID and ‘bastard’ to a fairly impressive number of local and not so local villains in Cornishire, he saw that the photo revealed a much younger but still recognisable version of himself and a friend, William Hiscock, whose cremation he had just attended. He and ‘Wild Bill’ had been quite the local lotharios, able to out drink all of their contempories and still stand up after six (usually claimed to be sixteen) pints of the local cider known as scrumpy. They had the best chat-up lines most of which Karno fondly remembered as starting with a cheerful ‘ello my luvver’. He also remembered that usually the hoped-for romantic encounters ended with the friendly riposte of ‘my friend says why don’t you fuck off and stop bothering her!’ Encouraged by this early success with the opposite sex which he put down to his manly physique and air of latent authority, Karno had got a haircut and graduated from the police training college at Hendon, eventually to become a Detective Constable in the CID. Wild Bill graduated from the local scrumpy and eventually became a fully-fledged alkie and professional ‘gentleman of the road’. They had kept in irregular touch, meeting whenever Karno’s beat took him past whatever hedge Wild Bill was currently residing in. Middle age found the two old pals respectively a DCI and a DOA, Wild Bill having been found genteely decomposing under a chic hedge in a more upmarket part of Cornishire, clutching a half-empty bottle of non-vintage Chateau Methalaite, the preferred tipple of his later years. Karno’s professional suspicions had been mildly raised by this because he thought it unlikely that the Wild Bill he knew would voluntarily leave a half-full bottle. Doc Carver, the duty police surgeon, had said that he didn’t have much choice in the matter due to a massive heart attack. Karno had to concede that that would in all probability prevent Wild Bill from finishing the bottle, and had been the sole attendee at his send off. A sudden, harsh roaring sound from above interrupted his reflections on the strange twists and turns that life could take, and he looked skywards. Drifting over the top of the tree line, a lurid blue hot air balloons’ propane burner had been switched on and the contraption rose rapidly and gracefully into the calm evening air. Karno was just thinking that Wild Bill’s last few seconds of bodily existence must have been accompanied by much the same sound and that it was all right for some, swanning around in balloons on a summers evening, when there was a bright flash, an explosion and a flaming fiery plunge towards the tree-clad sweet-scented hill on the other side of the river. Just before the impact there was a further explosion and the balloon, a now unrecognisable ball of fire, settled onto the sweet-scented, attractively colourful and picturesque hillside and set it alight in a colourful and picturesque way. Pausing only to think ‘fuck me’ and then ‘fuck it’ when he realised that there was no mobile phone signal Karno rushed into the pub to find that young Everard the barman was already calling the fire brigade. Unable to think of anything else that he might usefully do he ambled back out to the garden to find that some bugger had quaintly finished -off his beer.

Earlier that same evening Denzil Kliskey, owner and sole pilot of The Flaming Great Balloon Company, had welcomed his latest punters to the field known locally as Bigton International Airport, adjacent to his rambling manor house. Demelza (nee Mutton) and Julyan Lamb, self-proclaimed local dignitaries and scrap metal merchants, had decided to celebrate ten years of happy marriage in style and so for their thirtieth anniversary succumbed to Denzil’s marketing hype and booked an evenings flight and supper on the St Louis, the large blue balloon currently sitting half-inflated at Bigton International. Denzil’s original marketing ploy had been ‘look down on those you despise and drop chicken bones on them’ but the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA or ‘Campaign Against Aviation’ as it was sometimes referred to) had objected pointing out that it was illegal to drop chicken bones or indeed anything else from a balloon. Having generated a lot of local press comment, not to say several ‘Incensed and Outraged of Bigton’ letters to the Cornishshire Clarion, Denzil now marketed his balloon experience flights with the slogan ‘look down on those beneath you’ and honour was satisfied all-round. Mind you, he hadn’t hit upon this snappy advertising slogan immediately, no siree bob. His first alternative, ‘enjoy a scenic flight and piss on the buggers below’, had also attracted much comment, a reminder from the CAA that this could also be construed as dropping something from a balloon and an unamused letter from the County Council’s environmental health officer. Other options he considered but eventually rejected included “Why not pop round for a balloon flight?’ and somewhat prophetically ‘Wanna burn up in my balloon?’

Provisions on the supper flights consisted of cold roast chicken, potato salad, coleslaw, pâté de fois grás, a brace of baguettes, locally produced blue cheese, biscuits and the obligatory bottle of bubbly. Another advertising slogan that briefly saw the light of day was ‘pop your cork on an evening flight’ but after one particularly memorable occasion, due to a slight misunderstanding as to what the slogan actually referred to Denzil had changed it to save his further blushes. Be that as it may, not realising that this was their usual evening out attire, Denzil was pleased to see that the Lamb’s had apparently entered into the spirit of things, dressing in Edwardian clothing for the flight. He took pleasure in informing them that the odd chicken bone lobbed over the side of the basket would probably go unremarked by those below but was immensely satisfying nethertheless. Once all three were safely ensconced in the wicker basket, Scrotum the faithful old Kliskey family retainer manhandled the groaning picnic hamper up after them, it’s groans only being matched by his own groaning comments about his lumbago. Playfully smacking him around the head to ‘take your mind off your lumbago you malingering old sod’, Denzil told him to follow the flight in the support vehicle and instructed him to keep young Jethro off the scrumpy until after they’d deflated the balloon and put it onto the trailer. With that, he fired the propane burner and inflated the balloon, which obligingly rose to the height of its tethering ropes and bobbed uncertainly in the calm evening air. Judging his moment carefully, he shouted to Scrotum and Jethro to release the tethering ropes, dropped a bag of sand ballast on them which always amused the punters and the St Louis rose majestically into the evening sky to go wherever the wind blew it.

“I’ve got a special surprise for you” he told the entranced couple.

Six months later, Detective Chief Inspector Fred Karno was looking forward to his Christmas lunch with considerably pleasure. Having received a seasons greetings card from his ex-wife expressing the sentiment that she was bloody glad he wasn’t there (a condominium in Florida) and that the kids didn’t miss him much either, he’d decided to cheer himself up and push the boat out for Christmas lunch and the hell with the expense. Weighing-up the exotic and traditional options offered by the local food emporium and jealous of his departmental-wide reputation for culinary expertise, he’d gone the adventurous, non-traditional route and plumped for a curried Cornishire pasty (Madras) served with slightly al dente oven chips and marginally burnt baked beans. To finish he’d decided on a spectacular microwave pudding and proposed to wash it all down with a couple of bottles of vintage scrumpy. Having just finished resetting the house’s electric circuit breakers after spectacularly forgetting to remove the pudding from its foil container, he sat down and was about to open the first bottle of scrumpy when the phone rang.

“That you Karno?” The voice of Assistant Chief Constable (should have been Chief Constable but the force is still sexist and if I’d have been a man the perfectly-understandable shooting of the seven Japanese tourists who had been mistaken for a North Korean terrorist cell hell-bent on photographing to death the local flower show would have overlooked) Miniver Vanne demanded.

Karno carefully considered his options. He could simply deny it claiming a wrong number; he could admit to it on the admittedly unlikely off chance that his boss was ringing to wish him a ‘Happy Christmas’ and claim to be pissed if it turned out that she actually hadn’t rung for that reason or he could remain non-committal until he found out exactly what it was she wanted. He opted for the non-committal approach and decided to use the local patois (not to be confused with the local  pâté).

“Err….” He began.

“Right; there’s been a terrorist attack in Letsbe Avenue, get down there before Special Branch grab all the glory.” So much for the non-committal approach then; he looked ruefully at his rapidly cooling gourmet lunch. Well OK, he looked ruefully at the two bottles of vintage scrumpy that were seductively sighing ‘drink me, drink me’ and regarded the pasty with a speculative air. There is an art to eating a pasty generously smothered in mango and lime chutney whilst driving at high speed and Karno had never yet mastered it but always speculated that one day he might. Who was to say, today might be that day?

“What’s the address?”

“Letsbe Avenue. I think you’ll find that it’ll probably be the house with the fire engine outside and the gnomes in the front garden tastefully decorated with various body-bits. You’d better get the rest of your circus on the job as well. I want a preliminary report by tonight.” The phone was forcefully put down, which coincidentally mirrored Karno’s thoughts on what the future ought to hold for Assistant Chief Constable Miniver Vanne.

Muttering irritably to himself, he gathered up the rapidly cooling pasty, wrapped it in a sheet of paper kitchen towel and headed for his front door. During the drive to Letsbe Avenue he proved conclusively to himself that today wasn’t to be the day that he mastered the pasty eating whilst driving at high -speed technique and he pulled up to a screeching, colourfully-stained-trouser halt outside number seventeen. Throwing open the car door he narrowly failed to catch it with his hand on its abrupt return but luckily managed to insert his right knee between the rapidly- returning dented door and the undented car body when it bounced off the unfortunately placed lamppost. He hobbled along the pavement to number twenty-one, where a group of firemen were admiring the interestingly decorated front garden.

“Hello Freddy Boy; dragged you out as well have they?”

“Yeah. Still never mind, I’ve recorded the Queen’s speech so I won’t miss anything important. What happened?”

Divisional Officer Cotton Levi removed his helmet and scratched his close-cropped grey hair with a suspiciously stained fingernail.

“Err, don’t quote me on this but some sort of bomb, I reckon.”

“Err right. Couldn’t have been something they ate, I suppose?”

Levi turned to look at him, glanced at his interestingly stained trousers and speculated on the probability of Karno’s suggestion.

“Err could have been; tricky thing, eating. All sorts of unexpected things can happen when you least expect it, particularly if you’re a bit off with your aim like.”

“But you’d put your money on it being a bomb?”

“Err right; most likely. I might be wrong of course and I wouldn’t want to commit myself at this early stage in the investigation you understand. However, my first impression, taking all things into consideration, is it’s probably a bomb. The fact that the three people in the room were blown to bits and the fact that remains of the dining room wall have been found on the other side of the road, well I just thought it was more suggestive of a bomb than some sort of digestive malfunction.”

“Hmmm; well I can follow your reasoning; still, let’s not jump to conclusions eh?  Soco here?”

“Inside, along with Special Branch.”

“Bloody hell, they were a bit quick off the mark weren’t they?”

“Yes and no.”

“How so?”

“Special Branch lives directly opposite and a gnome which had been hit by a bit of blasted masonry got launched through his dining-room window and landed in his soup. Made a right mess of his shirt, maybe you could buy it off of him, it would go lovely with your trousers.”

“Err yeah, well I’ll bear that in mind, thanks Cotton.”

With that, Karno wandered inside through the remains of the wall and sought out Special Branch.

“What the bloody hell do you think you’re doing? Go on, clear off out of it, bloody tourist!” The speaker was a tall man with short brown hair and a colourful shirt that would have invited approving comments at a Caribbean Carnival. Karno turned to face him and was recognised although he didn’t recall having seen the man before.

“Oh sorry, didn’t recognise you from the back. We haven’t met,” he held out his hand,” Trees, Jonathan Trees, Special Branch. Just been transferred down here, thought I’d escaped all this sort of thing.”

Karno took the proffered hand whilst eying up the man’s shirt. “Karno. Pity, wrong size it might have gone quite well.”

“What?”

“Sorry, just thinking out loud. What have we got here?”

“Looks like a bomb.”

“A bomb? In Paignmouth? Bit of a turn up for the books that. The DO said there were three people in here?”

“Yup. Dad and two kids, Mum was in the kitchen.”

“Ah, that would account for it then.”

“Account for what?”

“The fact that everybody seems to know there were three people in here. You officially investigating?”

“If it is a bomb then I think that falls into SB’s province, don’t you?”

“If it’s a bomb then maybe. On the other hand why don’t we pretend for just a minute that it doesn’t and you tell me, thinking of yourself as an eye witness like, what it was you saw.”

“More of an ear witnesses really Karno. Bloody great bang and then a gnome landed in my soup. I can give you a description if you like?”

“The soup?”

“I was thinking more of the gnome, but since you asked carrot and potato.”

“The gnome?”

“The soup.”

“Ah; no doubt tasty as well as very fetching, my compliments to the chef. Who were the deceased?”

“Now there you have me, only moved in two days ago.”

“Right, right. Still, surprised that Special Branch wouldn’t have checked out their new neighbours?”

“The local boys gave me the OK.”

“Of course. Bit causal though; I mean if the bomber had taken the same approach, well he might have blown up the wrong house. Didn’t upset anybody in your last place did you by any chance?”

Trees shook his head. “Barking up the wrong tree.” He said.

“Oh very good; yes I like that, barking up the wrong tree, very droll. Well, if you’re not here officially maybe you’d like to get back to your lunch and I’ll get on here. Don’t let me keep you.” Karno half turned away and caught the eye of a uniformed sergeant.

“Endean, isn’t it?”

“Err yes sir.”

“Well what have we here sergeant?”

“Err parts of the Kory family sir, Henry Icarus Kory, or at least what remains of him, son Damien and daughter Demelza. The missus, Maria, is next door lying down; she was in the kitchen when the explosion occurred. Lucky for her.”

“Convenient at any rate. Right well I’d better let Soco get on with their job and I’ll limp round next door and talk to the widow Kory. If anybody wants me, you know where I am. Which side?”

“Err, number twenty three; the one on the left as you stand on the pavement looking towards the houses.”

“Thank you sergeant; I expect the number on the door would have given me a clue but you’ve help preserve what’s left of my eyesight. Wouldn’t want to go and use it all up before I retire, now would I?” He limped off.

The following morning saw the rest of the circus, displaying various degrees of enthusiasm and alertness, assembled in Karno’s office.

“Right Boys and Girl, what we have here are three dead members of the Kory family. Henry Icarus Kory, a classic car restorer who won’t be celebrating his forty seventh birthday next week, daughter Demelza Imelda Kory aged seventeen and a bit and Damien Oscar Kory aged fourteen and three quarters. Over here, we have Maria Una Kory nee Trebartha. The more astute amongst you may have noticed that her picture is where we usually have pictures of any suspects and may possibly be asking yourselves why that is.”

Detective Constable Gordon Fetcher, newly arrived circus member who had immediately acquired the nickname of ‘Go’ and hadn’t yet worked out why, stirred himself.

“Err yeah, Guv. I was wondering why Ma Kory’s picture was where we usually……..”

“Thank you DC Fetcher. Glad to see that you’re on the ball. She’s a suspect because very conveniently she was in the kitchen getting a corkscrew when whatever it was that blew up the rest of her family went off.”

Detective Inspector Rosetta Stone, the highly computer literate but somewhat anally retentive geek of the circus raised an elegantly manicured finger.

“Convenient Guv? Lucky certainly but convenient?”

“Convenient. See whilst you lot were enjoying your lunch yesterday I spoke to Madame Kory and had a poke around the house. In the kitchen, I found four bottles of Chateau Le Boot in a cardboard case. Two bottles were missing from the case…”

“Six in a case Guv.”

“You astound me Fetcher; I step back in sheer amazement; how did you work that out?”

“Err well see……”

“It was a rhetorical question. What do you think happened to the other two bottles? That’s an actual question by the way.”

“Err; drunk I suppose.”

“Drunk or on the dining-room table ready to be drunk with the Christmas lunch. Yes well done Fetcher. Now I can’t say that Chateau Le Boot is a particular favourite of mine, a bit rubbery on the tongue and the bouquet is always a little overwhelming in my opinion, but the thing is that Madame Kory, according to her, went into the kitchen to get a corkscrew…..”

“Seems a natural sort of thing to do Guv.” Commented Detective Sergeant Henry (Preppie) Pyle.

“Yes indeed, it would be except for one thing. Chateau Le Boot, fine wine that it undoubtably is, comes in convenient, no corkscrew required screw top bottles. Now if this was a new wine to maison Kory then I wouldn’t have thought anything of it, but according to Madame Kory it was a family favourite; one they would always drink and not just on special occasions like a successful business deal, some sporting feat of the boy, listening to a favourite radio program or Christmas lunch.”

“So she would have known that it had a screw top.”

“Indeed she would.”

“Brilliant! Cracked it Guv. What’s the next case?”

“What’s next DC Gundry is we wait for forensics to tell us exactly what it was that went off. In the meantime, the widow Kory is a suspect and we need to find out what she had to gain by murdering her entire family. Rosie, I want you to see if you can turn up any recent insurance policies taken out, or even not so recent come to that. Old hat, bloody obvious I know but nethertheless that’s what I want you to do. Gundry, Fetcher; talk to the neighbours. Any whispers of La Kory, or Herr Kory come to that, playing away from home; any angry words between them, any crying on somebody’s shoulder for sympathy, you know the sort of thing but be discreet though. Pyle, you and I are going to take a gander at Herr Kory’s car restoration business. I can’t imagine why anybody would want to kill a car restorer, but just in case, we’d better take a look at it. Actually, bearing in mind my one foray into the world of restored cars I can imagine why somebody might want to kill a car restorer. Right; back here for tea and crumpets at four and let’s see if we or forensics have come up with anything interesting.”

The great self-publishing question......answered.

As some of you may know, most of you probably as Google stats tells me that vitually all of you come to this blog via my sailing blog, I’ve recently had ‘a bit of a shock’ on the pension front. To be precise, my pension payments have been slashed by 66%. Not TO 66% but BY 66%. Clearly, clear to me at any rate, my cruising days (cruising in my boat for those of you who haven’t visited via the sailing blog) are numbered. What to do?

At this point let’s review the arguments against self-publishing. So JK, you’ve written the definitive novel of the twenty-first century (or not, are you the best judge of that?) and now you’ve decided to self-publish. Have you carefully proof read your work? Well you might have done, but as you wrote it in the first place you probably won’t spot that many errors, so you need a proof reader. A couple or three choices spring to mind. Friends, hire a proof reader or join a writers group and hope somebody will do the job for you. That translates into somebody who might or might not spot more typos than you, spending money or having a complete stranger whose background you know precious little of check your work and wanting something in return.

Having jumped through that hoop, you might consider editing your work. Now you’ve probably already chopped bits and pieces out of it, but can you view it with an unbiased eye? Can you hell, it’s your baby, your pride and joy. Somebody else needs to cast a critical eye over it. What should an editor be looking at? How about inconsistencies in the plot, shallow characters, a bad ending, a bad beginning and is the story in fact worth telling at all, for a few of ideas off the top of my head? Friends and writers groups might be able to answer a couple of these questions, but can they look past what they like and consider a genre that they might have no interest/experience in or liking for? Back to hiring an editor, but which one? Lucky dip in Yellow Pages, recommendations from other authors or do you respond  to adverts that pop up from time to time on your browser or email program. Of course, you might decide to skip both these steps and trust your judgement, I’m sure a lot of self-published authors do. I’m also sure that many if not most self-published authors sell a few books to family and friends and that’s it. Remember that pension which is now 33% of what it was? A bit of a conundrum then, do you invest in yourself or do you exercise iron will and a self-critical eye? I have no idea what a proof reader and editor would cost, the two are totally different functions of course so you really are looking at hiring two different people.

And now a digression. ‘They’ are watching you, you know. Have you ever noticed that when you send an email or even make a blog entry, you receive a bunch of ads/pop ups based on what you wrote? I have and as an ardent aardvark fancier who thinks it would be fun to have an ardvark as a companion on a cross country bus trip in Latvia, travelling in a vintage double-decker Routemaster London bus whilst in fancy dress, say a little leather cocktail dress, I shall view my ads over the next couple of days with interest.

Be that as it may, back to self-publishing (or even Self-Publishing. Nah, get enough of those already!) and having crossed the financial hurdle of having your work checked, or not as the case may be, you have to decide are you going to publish your masterpiece as an ebook, a paperback or both? Let’s assume that you’re going to publish as an ebook only, which platform do you use, Amazon, Smashwords or something else? Using Amazon limits you to the Kindle format, but of course, they probably are the biggest provider of ebooks. Sorted then? Well not quite, first you have to upload your work, then you have to check the formatting. Having done so, quite possibly several times, you’re ready to epublish right? Not quite, how about the cover artwork, is it important for an ebook? Well when you do a bit of searching on the Internet you find that most of those who provide artwork for a price say it’s vital (now there’s a surprise), a couple of honest souls say it’s important but if it’s a good story it might not be quite so important and of course here’s plenty of people who say it’s unimportant. Personally when I’ve brought ebooks I haven’t really noticed the covers unless they’re exceptional, but then I haven’t really been browsing, I’ve been after a specfic book. That leads me onto another point, but in a moment.

Right, the book’s on Amazon UK and Amazon International and you’ve even filled out a gazillion page form to allow Amazon International to pay your royalties without deducting US income tax. Relax and wait for the money to roll in. Er not quite, what about marketing? You’ve already pestered everybody in your email address book and of course you’ve been writing a blog, have a facebook page and are a Twit(erer). What else? Damn good question. Still stalkingthe point I was getting to in the last paragraph. Amazon have a jolly wheeze up their sleeve. Provided you’ve priced your book at £2.99 or above, they pay 70% of the cover price as royalties, which of course is good, in fact about the best deal that you’ll get for ebooks. The jolly wheeze is that as a marketing ploy you can specify a couple of dates when readers can download your book free and they will still pay you the royalties at the 70% of the cover price that you originally set rate. Fantastic eh? Amazon also say that if they decide to drop the price of your etome they will pay royalties based on the price that you set. Nirvana (weren’t they a seventies band?)! The sting can be if you’ve epublished elsewhere, Amazon also reserve the right to match or better the price of your book on any platform, so if another platform does a promotion Amazon will notice and will drop their price. In this case, your royalties will be based on the new price and I’m not clear how quickly Amazon ‘notice’ if the promotion ends on another eplatform. One final little wrinkle in the fine print. Have you noticed when you buy an ebook on Amazon that you get a ‘readers who brought this also brought..’ pop-up? Your book, provided it’s selling, will go up the Amazon sales ladder and eventually at a certain level of sales your book will feature on the ‘readers also brought…’ pop up BUT, the sales that come about from the promotion do NOT count towards the level of sales needed to feature you on Amazon’s ‘readers also brought’ pop up. Oh, and don’t forget that formatting is different on each different epub platform. Still with me, or are you wondering what an aardvark in a leather cocktail dress would look like?

So much for ebooks. Wanna be a paperback writer? I believe that Amazon have a ‘real’ publishing division, but of course the book’s then only available on Amazon. There are self-publishing companies who will print on demand (POD) and list the book with Amazon and other retail outlets BUT, the royalty structure is different i.e. not so generous, and of course you won’t see your book in WH Smiths, airport departure lounges or a bookstore near you, unless you pay for a print run. Surely not a good idea as you might have paid out several hundred pounds on editing, proof reading and artwork already. Never mind, you’ve pounded the pavements and convinced your local store to stock your masterpiece. Hell, for a price your POD self-publisher will even organise a book signing for you. You take the plunge, have a good time and sell a couple of books. You’ve even persuaded Jimmy Olson from the local rag to attend and interview you (or paid for him to do so). You’re on your way baby. Weeell, not so fast JK, ever heard of ‘returns’? They’re the unsold copies that booksellers return to publishers after they fail to sell them in, oh I don’t know, the first five or ten minutes after they put them on display at the back of the bookstore near to the ‘books in Mesopotanian’ section. Naturally they are returned and disposed of at your expense, not the POD self-publishing company. You will, I am reliably informed, be billed for this.

So much for self publishing then. What about the ‘traditional’ route? First you have to get signed up by an agent. Yes you can pitch your book direct to a publishing house but I get the feeling that most are a bit sniffy about that, although it is changing, slowly. OK, an agent likes your work and a good one will proof read and may even make editorial suggestions in order to attract a publisher, free of charge but of course there are agents’ fees to be paid out of royalties. If your agent asks for money up front, find a new agent or make sure their ‘cut’ from your royalties is on the quantum end of the scale rather than the cosmological end. Now the waiting begins and it can (and has) taken up to three years for an agent to interest a publisher in a manuscript. But eventually comes the day and you sign a contract; hurrah!! Problems over right? You get a humungous advance and…..not so fast. Most advances these days seem to be in the order of three or four thousand US dollars (or the equivalent) and you might not get that in one fell swoop either. Before that, the agent will have negotiated your contract, retaining as many of your rights to your work as he or she can manage and making sure that you get a different royalty structure for ebooks. In the interim you’ve lost out on sales (i.e. money) by not self-publishing. Conventional wisdom says that the advance from the publisher will nullify this, but assuming you get £1.99 per book from Amazon, if you can manage to sell fifteen hundred books (based on an advance of three thousand pounds) you’re ahead by self- publishing. Or are you? Fifteen hundred books is a lot unless you’re a marketing wizard. If the agent route takes three years to produce an advance (and frankly these days that isn’t guaranteed) you need to sell five hundred books a year/forty one a month/ten a week. Tricky JK, tricky.

For all that, my pension has just been cut BY sixty six percent and to keep cruising (and I wonder what ‘they’ will make of cruising) I need to generate some income PDQ. I had started on what I fondly imagined was a faintly amusing police story. Rather than take any of my books away from Emma the Agent, I think I’ll finish that off and self publish on Amazon, with a cover photo that is in the public domain (i.e. free). I was about six chapters into it, so I tell you what. How about I edit/proof read the first chapter and put it on this blog, would you let me know what you think about it? Watch this space.